https://rivka.me/blog/Writing on data, causal inference, learning, and fencing. https://rivka.me/the-touche-stats-data-is-now-public/ https://rivka.me/the-touche-stats-data-is-now-public/ Sun, 25 Jan 2026 16:48:37 GMT Hi all! You may have noticed that I haven’t posted anything about fencing in almost a year. Last year, I graduated from high school, and since going to college, I haven’t had much time to fence. This makes me sad, but at the same time, college has been great, and I’m overall happy. I haven’t… Read More » The Touche… https://rivka.me/when-voter-id-laws-decrease-turnout-and-when-they-dont/ https://rivka.me/when-voter-id-laws-decrease-turnout-and-when-they-dont/ Sun, 07 Dec 2025 21:06:11 GMT Should voters need to bring identification (ID) to vote? On the one hand, one could argue that verifying the identity of every voter prevents election fraud. It ensures that noncitizens don’t vote and that each citizen can’t cast their vote more than once. On the other hand, one could argue that not everyone has access… Read More » When Voter… https://rivka.me/why-i-love-anki-10k-reviews-and-100-days-later/ https://rivka.me/why-i-love-anki-10k-reviews-and-100-days-later/ Mon, 29 Sep 2025 00:43:07 GMT Last summer, I found out that MIT offers advanced standing exams (ASEs), which are a way to test out of introductory STEM classes. Since MIT has a pretty large set of STEM graduation requirements (two semesters each of physics and calculus, one semester each of chemistry and biology), it can be very helpful to pass… Read More » Why I… https://rivka.me/edging-out-latin-bert-at-text-infilling-with-fine-tuned-gpt-4o/ https://rivka.me/edging-out-latin-bert-at-text-infilling-with-fine-tuned-gpt-4o/ Sun, 10 Aug 2025 08:17:47 GMT Unfortunately, many archaeologists discover ancient Latin texts in damaged condition, with words missing throughout. To solve this problem, Latin experts usually emend the texts and try to fill in these missing words. However, this process is often difficult and time-consuming. In 2020, researchers at UC Berkeley and UT Austin developed a model called Latin BERT… Read More » Edging Out… https://rivka.me/90-of-youth-fencers-want-to-practice-more-footwork/ https://rivka.me/90-of-youth-fencers-want-to-practice-more-footwork/ Tue, 01 Apr 2025 17:54:39 GMT Most of the analyses on this blog have been based on data from the USA Fencing tournament results website. However, there are many questions that cannot be answered from this type of data, especially those trying to gauge the opinions of the fencing community. In March, I partnered with the FIE to administer a survey… Read More » 90% of… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-7/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-7/ Wed, 12 Mar 2025 18:59:00 GMT This was the day that nobody was looking forward to: the day when we would have to leave. Still, we had one more activity planned for us in the morning: breakfast with the Society for Science Board of Trustees. I sat at a table with HP Solutions President Dave Shull. He was a finalist in… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-6/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-6/ Wed, 12 Mar 2025 06:49:10 GMT Today was probably the most exciting day of Regeneron STS because we did so many things! First, we woke up at the crack of dawn to go to the Capitol Building and take the historic photo that finalists from every year have taken. The building is gorgeous — not only is it enormous but the… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-5/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-5/ Tue, 11 Mar 2025 03:48:08 GMT There was no judging today, which was a relief for everyone. Instead, we would be splitting up and going on field trips to various research/science-related destinations. I went to the Janelia Research Center, which is particularly focused on neuroscience research. Janelia is located about an hour’s drive away from the Conrad because it’s literally out… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-4/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-4/ Mon, 10 Mar 2025 04:19:52 GMT Today was the final day of judging, which was a relief. It was different today, however, because it was project judging instead of panel judging, which meant that we were now talking about the subject we were experts in. When we got to the second floor, all of our posters were set up on tables.… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-3/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-3/ Sun, 09 Mar 2025 03:32:12 GMT This post is going to be a bit shorter because it’s daylight savings tomorrow and I need to get to bed soon, but like posts before, I’m never going to fully be able to convey the excitement of Finals Week. Not just because so much happens here that I can’t fit it in a 500-1,000… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-2/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-2/ Sat, 08 Mar 2025 04:35:01 GMT After getting to know each other a bit, we finally had our first day of judging! I woke up a bit before my alarm yet again and went down to breakfast to eat with the other finalists. The food was amazing again; the Conrad Hotel had the best breakfast sausage that I’d ever eaten. Shortly… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-1/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-1/ Fri, 07 Mar 2025 04:24:13 GMT Today was the first actual day of the event, which was exciting! I woke up at 8:11 am, shortly before my alarm went off. It’s always nice when that happens because I feel less groggy when I wake up naturally. I took my time to get ready in the morning before heading down to breakfast,… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-0/ https://rivka.me/regeneron-sts-finals-week-day-0/ Thu, 06 Mar 2025 04:15:32 GMT I was honored to be selected as a finalist in the Regeneron Science Talent Search, which includes a weeklong trip in March where they do the final judging and select the top 10 scientists in the country. I’ve heard from others that Finals Week is a life-changing and extremely fun experience, so I’m going to… Read More » Regeneron STS… https://rivka.me/a-statistical-stab-at-referee-bias/ https://rivka.me/a-statistical-stab-at-referee-bias/ Wed, 22 Jan 2025 18:08:00 GMT A similar version of this was presented at the UConn Sports Analytics Symposium and is published in the Wharton Sports Analytics Journal. I wrote this article in June for a more general audience than my usual readership, so it has a slightly different tone. “The ref is biased!” hollers an angry fan at every sporting… Read More » A Statistical… https://rivka.me/joining-a-top-club-wont-necessarily-make-you-better/ https://rivka.me/joining-a-top-club-wont-necessarily-make-you-better/ Mon, 25 Nov 2024 04:22:29 GMT Fencers frequently switch clubs, either because their current club isn’t meeting their needs, or to train with certain fencers or coaches at another club. But does switching clubs actually lead to better competitive outcomes? To answer this, I analyzed data from over 600 fencers who switched clubs, using matrix completion—a machine learning technique—to estimate counterfactual… Read More » Joining a… https://rivka.me/can-fencers-bounce-back-from-being-cut-after-pools-pt-2/ https://rivka.me/can-fencers-bounce-back-from-being-cut-after-pools-pt-2/ Sat, 26 Oct 2024 17:42:11 GMT Post-conference update: This poster won 2nd place! 🥈 This post is a continuation from my previous post Can Fencers Bounce Back From Being Cut After Pools?. As I prepared that work to be presented at the CMU Sports Analytics Conference and the Midwest Sports Analytics Meeting, I made some small changes and even found some… Read More » Can Fencers… https://rivka.me/can-fencers-bounce-back-from-being-cut-after-pools/ https://rivka.me/can-fencers-bounce-back-from-being-cut-after-pools/ Thu, 29 Aug 2024 00:43:32 GMT This research will be presented at the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference and Midwest Sports Analytics Meeting. Getting cut after pools is probably one of the worst feelings at a national tournament. It hurts to travel hundreds of miles to an event and only get to fence a handful of 5-touch bouts. Sometimes after being… Read More » Can Fencers… https://rivka.me/statistical-significance-might-be-less-significant-in-the-future/ https://rivka.me/statistical-significance-might-be-less-significant-in-the-future/ Mon, 15 Jul 2024 08:23:58 GMT In the olden days (sometime around the 5th century BCE), it was commonly believed that all numbers were rational and could be expressed as fractions with integer numerators and denominators. When Hippasus of Metapontum demonstrated that the square root of 2 is irrational, it challenged the Pythagorean worldview. According to legend, this revelation so outraged… Read More » Statistical Significance… https://rivka.me/surprise-east-coast-nacs-do-not-harm-performance/ https://rivka.me/surprise-east-coast-nacs-do-not-harm-performance/ Sat, 22 Jun 2024 06:24:15 GMT Many parents, fencers, and coaches have expressed frustration on social media that East Coast North American Cups (NACs) are problematic for West Coast fencers. Morning events on the East Coast translate to 5:00 AM on West Coast time, and fencers often have to wake up 1-2 hours earlier than their event start time to eat… Read More » Surprise! East… https://rivka.me/at-what-age-do-fencers-make-the-most-improvement/ https://rivka.me/at-what-age-do-fencers-make-the-most-improvement/ Sun, 19 May 2024 05:12:12 GMT Getting better at fencing can be complex and unpredictable. Some days, I feel like I’m not making any progress at all, then one week later everything clicks. Like most sports, progression in fencing isn’t linear, and everyone has ups, downs, and plateaus. In comparison to sports like gymnastics, where athletes typically peak in their teens,… Read More » At What… https://rivka.me/synthetic-controls-a-powerful-way-to-measure-policy-impact/ https://rivka.me/synthetic-controls-a-powerful-way-to-measure-policy-impact/ Tue, 07 May 2024 13:00:00 GMT Have you ever wondered if a policy change actually has the intended effect? A few months ago, I stumbled upon a paper by Meehan & Stephenson (2024) that examined the effects of the name change of the Washington Bullets to the Wizards in 1997. At the time, there was prevalent gun violence in Washington D.C.,… Read More » Synthetic Controls:… https://rivka.me/do-some-regions-have-inflated-ratings/ https://rivka.me/do-some-regions-have-inflated-ratings/ Sun, 24 Mar 2024 05:46:14 GMT The question of “rating inflation” in different regions or divisions has been a topic of debate. Some argue that places like New York and New Jersey have higher rating inflation because they have numerous tournaments with highly rated fencers. On the flip side, others believe that these areas have deflated ratings because it’s challenging to… Read More » Do Some… https://rivka.me/what-is-the-best-way-to-get-national-points/ https://rivka.me/what-is-the-best-way-to-get-national-points/ Sat, 09 Dec 2023 23:28:00 GMT National points hold significant value for fencers in the United States. These points serve multiple purposes: not only do they secure a fencer’s qualification for National Championships, but they also offer them a seeding advantage over lower ranked competitors in tournaments. Furthermore, accumulating a substantial number of national points can open doors to international tournaments… Read More » What Is… https://rivka.me/how-are-pools-correlated-with-performance/ https://rivka.me/how-are-pools-correlated-with-performance/ Fri, 24 Nov 2023 05:18:00 GMT A reader recently proposed an idea that struck my curiosity: “How does a fencer’s performance in their pools correlate with their overall performance in a tournament?” Sometimes, people’s performance after pools goes as expected, beating opponents lower in the pool results in DEs before finally losing to a strong opponent who did better in pools.… Read More » How Are… https://rivka.me/are-lower-rated-referees-associated-with-more-upsets/ https://rivka.me/are-lower-rated-referees-associated-with-more-upsets/ Tue, 14 Nov 2023 23:53:00 GMT Experiencing a wrong call from a referee can be quite disappointing, especially during those nail-biting moments when the score is 14-14. There’s often a sinking feeling that the bout could have ended in victory if not for the referee’s blunder. Luckily, USA Fencing has adopted a referee rating system for national tournaments designed to lessen… Read More » Are Lower… https://rivka.me/are-a-rated-fencers-more-consistent/ https://rivka.me/are-a-rated-fencers-more-consistent/ Sun, 29 Oct 2023 06:20:23 GMT Are A-rated fencers more consistent than E-rated fencers? They should be, but how can we know? Luckily, I have tens of thousands of bouts in my dataset, and I can answer this question (and answering such questions is the basis of the blog)! In this post, I will explore how the distribution of scores varies… Read More » Are A-Rated… https://rivka.me/uneven-pool-sizes-are-unfair/ https://rivka.me/uneven-pool-sizes-are-unfair/ Sat, 14 Oct 2023 22:48:00 GMT Pools are a critical part of fencing. When you don’t perform well in pools, you often have a hard path in DEs and lose earlier than you would expect. In cases where the total number of competitors is not divisible by 7, it’s common to have uneven pool sizes, resulting in some fencers being assigned… Read More » Uneven Pool… https://rivka.me/why-fencing-is-often-so-disappointing-12-of-bouts-are-lost-by-one-point/ https://rivka.me/why-fencing-is-often-so-disappointing-12-of-bouts-are-lost-by-one-point/ Sun, 01 Oct 2023 06:15:34 GMT You are standing on the unforgiving piste, the weight of your weapon in hand. Your breath quickens, heart pounding, as you face your opponent. The score is tied, 14-14. Every move feels like a dance on the edge of victory and defeat. Each step, each parry, a desperate bid for that final touch. The crowd’s… Read More » Why Fencing… https://rivka.me/do-past-performances-predict-future-results/ https://rivka.me/do-past-performances-predict-future-results/ Sun, 24 Sep 2023 23:02:00 GMT Can past performance predict future results? This is a question of many fencers, who wonder if the place they currently are is the place they are always going to be, or if one day they will be able to get an A rating or win a tournament. Of course you wish that your past results… Read More » Do Past… https://rivka.me/y12-performance-predicts-cadet-performance-surprisingly-well/ https://rivka.me/y12-performance-predicts-cadet-performance-surprisingly-well/ Wed, 20 Sep 2023 23:04:00 GMT In my post When Can Youth and Cadet Fencers Make a Breakthrough? I talk about the small changes that occur year by year, but I don’t talk about the large changes that can happen over a large period of time. I didn’t think that this was on-topic for that post, but did you know that there… Read More » Y-12… https://rivka.me/is-epee-easier-than-foil/ https://rivka.me/is-epee-easier-than-foil/ Sat, 16 Sep 2023 06:07:00 GMT Everyone thinks their weapon is the best. This is not hyperbole. If you don’t think your weapon is the best, then why are you doing it? Switch to the weapon that you think is the best. We also all believe that our weapon is the most difficult, the most fun, the most important, etc. for… Read More » Is Epee… https://rivka.me/when-can-youth-and-cadet-fencers-make-a-breakthrough/ https://rivka.me/when-can-youth-and-cadet-fencers-make-a-breakthrough/ Sat, 09 Sep 2023 23:06:00 GMT Sometimes in youth fencing, fencers make huge improvements, going from getting cut during pools to medalling at NACs, or from an E rating to an A rating. However, when do most of these breakthroughs happen? I have heard some coaches say that it can happen between Y12 and Y14 when fencers get puberty, but things… Read More » When Can… https://rivka.me/how-often-do-low-rated-fencers-get-to-the-later-rounds/ https://rivka.me/how-often-do-low-rated-fencers-get-to-the-later-rounds/ Sun, 03 Sep 2023 13:02:00 GMT Most of the time when someone gets top 8 at a NAC, they get an A! This is cool; however, how often are people upgrading their ratings rather than just renewing? I analyzed the number of fencers from each rating who got into the top 8, 16, 32, and 64, and the results are quite… Read More » How Often… https://rivka.me/unveiling-fencings-winning-odds-by-rating/ https://rivka.me/unveiling-fencings-winning-odds-by-rating/ Fri, 01 Sep 2023 01:21:50 GMT For my first post, I want to look at the win probability between certain ratings. Ratings are a bit strange in fencing because everybody cares about earning a higher rating, but at the same time people also say that they don’t matter. It’s also commonly known that there is a great deal of variability and… Read More » Unveiling Fencing’s…