A similar version of this was presented at the UConn Sports Analytics Symposium and is published in the Wharton Sports Analytics Journal. I wrote this article in June for a more general audience than my usual readership, so it has a slightly different tone. “The ref is biased!” hollers an… Read More »A Statistical Stab at Referee Bias
Fencers frequently switch clubs, either because their current club isn’t meeting their needs, or to train with certain fencers or coaches at another club. But does switching clubs actually lead to better competitive outcomes? To answer this, I analyzed data from over 600 fencers who switched clubs, using matrix completion—a… Read More »Joining a Top Club Won’t Necessarily Make You Better
Post-conference update: This poster won 2nd place! 🥈 This post is a continuation from my previous post Can Fencers Bounce Back From Being Cut After Pools?. As I prepared that work to be presented at the CMU Sports Analytics Conference and the Midwest Sports Analytics Meeting, I made some small… Read More »Can Fencers Bounce Back From Being Cut After Pools? (Pt. 2)
This research will be presented at the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference and Midwest Sports Analytics Meeting. Getting cut after pools is probably one of the worst feelings at a national tournament. It hurts to travel hundreds of miles to an event and only get to fence a handful of… Read More »Can Fencers Bounce Back From Being Cut After Pools?
In the olden days (sometime around the 5th century BCE), it was commonly believed that all numbers were rational and could be expressed as fractions with integer numerators and denominators. When Hippasus of Metapontum demonstrated that the square root of 2 is irrational, it challenged the Pythagorean worldview. According to… Read More »Statistical Significance Might Be Less Significant in the Future
Many parents, fencers, and coaches have expressed frustration on social media that East Coast North American Cups (NACs) are problematic for West Coast fencers. Morning events on the East Coast translate to 5:00 AM on West Coast time, and fencers often have to wake up 1-2 hours earlier than their… Read More »Surprise! East Coast NACs Do Not Harm Performance
Getting better at fencing can be complex and unpredictable. Some days, I feel like I’m not making any progress at all, then one week later everything clicks. Like most sports, progression in fencing isn’t linear, and everyone has ups, downs, and plateaus. In comparison to sports like gymnastics, where athletes… Read More »At What Age Do Fencers Make the Most Improvement?
Have you ever wondered if a policy change actually has the intended effect? A few months ago, I stumbled upon a paper by Meehan & Stephenson (2024) that examined the effects of the name change of the Washington Bullets to the Wizards in 1997. At the time, there was prevalent… Read More »Synthetic Controls: A Powerful Way To Measure Policy Impact
The question of “rating inflation” in different regions or divisions has been a topic of debate. Some argue that places like New York and New Jersey have higher rating inflation because they have numerous tournaments with highly rated fencers. On the flip side, others believe that these areas have deflated… Read More »Do Some Regions Have Inflated Ratings?
National points hold significant value for fencers in the United States. These points serve multiple purposes: not only do they secure a fencer’s qualification for National Championships, but they also offer them a seeding advantage over lower ranked competitors in tournaments. Furthermore, accumulating a substantial number of national points can… Read More »What Is the Best Way to Get National Points?
A reader recently proposed an idea that struck my curiosity: “How does a fencer’s performance in their pools correlate with their overall performance in a tournament?” Sometimes, people’s performance after pools goes as expected, beating opponents lower in the pool results in DEs before finally losing to a strong opponent… Read More »How Are Pools Correlated With Performance?
Experiencing a wrong call from a referee can be quite disappointing, especially during those nail-biting moments when the score is 14-14. There’s often a sinking feeling that the bout could have ended in victory if not for the referee’s blunder. Luckily, USA Fencing has adopted a referee rating system for… Read More »Are Lower Rated Referees Associated With More Upsets?
Are A-rated fencers more consistent than E-rated fencers? They should be, but how can we know? Luckily, I have tens of thousands of bouts in my dataset, and I can answer this question (and answering such questions is the basis of the blog)! In this post, I will explore how… Read More »Are A-Rated Fencers More Consistent?
Pools are a critical part of fencing. When you don’t perform well in pools, you often have a hard path in DEs and lose earlier than you would expect. In cases where the total number of competitors is not divisible by 7, it’s common to have uneven pool sizes, resulting… Read More »Uneven Pool Sizes are Unfair
You are standing on the unforgiving piste, the weight of your weapon in hand. Your breath quickens, heart pounding, as you face your opponent. The score is tied, 14-14. Every move feels like a dance on the edge of victory and defeat. Each step, each parry, a desperate bid for… Read More »Why Fencing Is Often So Disappointing: 12% of Bouts Are Lost by One Point