In the olden days (sometime around the 5th century BCE), it was commonly believed that all numbers were rational and could be expressed as fractions with integer numerators and denominators. When Hippasus of Metapontum demonstrated that the square root of 2 is irrational, it challenged the Pythagorean worldview. According to… Read More »Statistical Significance Might Be Less Significant in the Future
Many parents, fencers, and coaches have expressed frustration on social media that East Coast North American Cups (NACs) are problematic for West Coast fencers. Morning events on the East Coast translate to 5:00 AM on West Coast time, and fencers often have to wake up 1-2 hours earlier than their… Read More »Surprise! East Coast NACs Do Not Harm Performance
Getting better at fencing can be complex and unpredictable. Some days, I feel like I’m not making any progress at all, then one week later everything clicks. Like most sports, progression in fencing isn’t linear, and everyone has ups, downs, and plateaus. In comparison to sports like gymnastics, where athletes… Read More »At What Age Do Fencers Make the Most Improvement?
Have you ever wondered if a policy change actually has the intended effect? A few months ago, I stumbled upon a paper by Meehan & Stephenson (2024) that examined the effects of the name change of the Washington Bullets to the Wizards in 1997. The team owner worried that the… Read More »Synthetic Controls: A Powerful Way To Measure Policy Impact
The question of “rating inflation” in different regions or divisions has been a topic of debate. Some argue that places like New York and New Jersey have higher rating inflation because they have numerous tournaments with highly rated fencers. On the flip side, others believe that these areas have deflated… Read More »Do Some Regions Have Inflated Ratings?
National points hold significant value for fencers in the United States. These points serve multiple purposes: not only do they secure a fencer’s qualification for National Championships, but they also offer them a seeding advantage over lower ranked competitors in tournaments. Furthermore, accumulating a substantial number of national points can… Read More »What Is the Best Way to Get National Points?
A reader recently proposed an idea that struck my curiosity: “How does a fencer’s performance in their pools correlate with their overall performance in a tournament?” Sometimes, people’s performance after pools goes as expected, beating opponents lower in the pool results in DEs before finally losing to a strong opponent… Read More »How Are Pools Correlated With Performance?
Experiencing a wrong call from a referee can be quite disappointing, especially during those nail-biting moments when the score is 14-14. There’s often a sinking feeling that the bout could have ended in victory if not for the referee’s blunder. Luckily, USA Fencing has adopted a referee rating system for… Read More »Are Lower Rated Referees Associated With More Upsets?
Are A-rated fencers more consistent than E-rated fencers? They should be, but how can we know? Luckily, I have tens of thousands of bouts in my dataset, and I can answer this question (and answering such questions is the basis of the blog)! In this post, I will explore how… Read More »Are A-Rated Fencers More Consistent?
Pools are a critical part of fencing. When you don’t perform well in pools, you often have a hard path in DEs and lose earlier than you would expect. In cases where the total number of competitors is not divisible by 7, it’s common to have uneven pool sizes, resulting… Read More »Uneven Pool Sizes are Unfair
You are standing on the unforgiving piste, the weight of your weapon in hand. Your breath quickens, heart pounding, as you face your opponent. The score is tied, 14-14. Every move feels like a dance on the edge of victory and defeat. Each step, each parry, a desperate bid for… Read More »Why Fencing Is Often So Disappointing: 12% of Bouts Are Lost by One Point
Can past performance predict future results? This is a question of many fencers, who wonder if the place they currently are is the place they are always going to be, or if one day they will be able to get an A rating or win a tournament. Of course you… Read More »Do Past Performances Predict Future Results?
In my post When Can Youth and Cadet Fencers Make a Breakthrough? I talk about the small changes that occur year by year, but I don’t talk about the large changes that can happen over a large period of time. I didn’t think that this was on-topic for that post, but… Read More »Y-12 Performance Predicts Cadet Performance Surprisingly Well
Everyone thinks their weapon is the best. This is not hyperbole. If you don’t think your weapon is the best, then why are you doing it? Switch to the weapon that you think is the best. We also all believe that our weapon is the most difficult, the most fun,… Read More »Is Epee Easier Than Foil?
Sometimes in youth fencing, fencers make huge improvements, going from getting cut during pools to medalling at NACs, or from an E rating to an A rating. However, when do most of these breakthroughs happen? I have heard some coaches say that it can happen between Y12 and Y14 when… Read More »When Can Youth and Cadet Fencers Make a Breakthrough?