Hi all! You may have noticed that I haven’t posted anything about fencing in almost a year. Last year, I graduated from high school, and since going to college, I haven’t had much time to fence. This makes me sad, but at the same time,…
Read more about The Touche Stats Data is Now PublicMost of the analyses on this blog have been based on data from the USA Fencing tournament results website. However, there are many questions that cannot be answered from this type of data, especially those trying to gauge the opinions of the fencing community. In…
Read more about 90% of Youth Fencers Want to Practice More FootworkA similar version of this was presented at the UConn Sports Analytics Symposium and is published in the Wharton Sports Analytics Journal. I wrote this article in June for a more general audience than my usual readership, so it has a slightly different tone. “The…
Read more about A Statistical Stab at Referee BiasFencers frequently switch clubs, either because their current club isn’t meeting their needs, or to train with certain fencers or coaches at another club. But does switching clubs actually lead to better competitive outcomes? To answer this, I analyzed data from over 600 fencers who…
Read more about Joining a Top Club Won’t Necessarily Make You BetterPost-conference update: This poster won 2nd place! 🥈 This post is a continuation from my previous post Can Fencers Bounce Back From Being Cut After Pools?. As I prepared that work to be presented at the CMU Sports Analytics Conference and the Midwest Sports Analytics…
Read more about Can Fencers Bounce Back From Being Cut After Pools? (Pt. 2)This research will be presented at the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference and Midwest Sports Analytics Meeting. Getting cut after pools is probably one of the worst feelings at a national tournament. It hurts to travel hundreds of miles to an event and only get…
Read more about Can Fencers Bounce Back From Being Cut After Pools?Many parents, fencers, and coaches have expressed frustration on social media that East Coast North American Cups (NACs) are problematic for West Coast fencers. Morning events on the East Coast translate to 5:00 AM on West Coast time, and fencers often have to wake up…
Read more about Surprise! East Coast NACs Do Not Harm PerformanceGetting better at fencing can be complex and unpredictable. Some days, I feel like I’m not making any progress at all, then one week later everything clicks. Like most sports, progression in fencing isn’t linear, and everyone has ups, downs, and plateaus. In comparison to…
Read more about At What Age Do Fencers Make the Most Improvement?The question of “rating inflation” in different regions or divisions has been a topic of debate. Some argue that places like New York and New Jersey have higher rating inflation because they have numerous tournaments with highly rated fencers. On the flip side, others believe…
Read more about Do Some Regions Have Inflated Ratings?National points hold significant value for fencers in the United States. These points serve multiple purposes: not only do they secure a fencer’s qualification for National Championships, but they also offer them a seeding advantage over lower ranked competitors in tournaments. Furthermore, accumulating a substantial…
Read more about What Is the Best Way to Get National Points?A reader recently proposed an idea that struck my curiosity: “How does a fencer’s performance in their pools correlate with their overall performance in a tournament?” Sometimes, people’s performance after pools goes as expected, beating opponents lower in the pool results in DEs before finally…
Read more about How Are Pools Correlated With Performance?Experiencing a wrong call from a referee can be quite disappointing, especially during those nail-biting moments when the score is 14-14. There’s often a sinking feeling that the bout could have ended in victory if not for the referee’s blunder. Luckily, USA Fencing has adopted…
Read more about Are Lower Rated Referees Associated With More Upsets?Are A-rated fencers more consistent than E-rated fencers? They should be, but how can we know? Luckily, I have tens of thousands of bouts in my dataset, and I can answer this question (and answering such questions is the basis of the blog)! In this…
Read more about Are A-Rated Fencers More Consistent?Pools are a critical part of fencing. When you don’t perform well in pools, you often have a hard path in DEs and lose earlier than you would expect. In cases where the total number of competitors is not divisible by 7, it’s common to…
Read more about Uneven Pool Sizes are UnfairYou are standing on the unforgiving piste, the weight of your weapon in hand. Your breath quickens, heart pounding, as you face your opponent. The score is tied, 14-14. Every move feels like a dance on the edge of victory and defeat. Each step, each…
Read more about Why Fencing Is Often So Disappointing: 12% of Bouts Are Lost by One PointCan past performance predict future results? This is a question of many fencers, who wonder if the place they currently are is the place they are always going to be, or if one day they will be able to get an A rating or win…
Read more about Do Past Performances Predict Future Results?In my post When Can Youth and Cadet Fencers Make a Breakthrough? I talk about the small changes that occur year by year, but I don’t talk about the large changes that can happen over a large period of time. I didn’t think that this…
Read more about Y-12 Performance Predicts Cadet Performance Surprisingly WellEveryone thinks their weapon is the best. This is not hyperbole. If you don’t think your weapon is the best, then why are you doing it? Switch to the weapon that you think is the best. We also all believe that our weapon is the…
Read more about Is Epee Easier Than Foil?Sometimes in youth fencing, fencers make huge improvements, going from getting cut during pools to medalling at NACs, or from an E rating to an A rating. However, when do most of these breakthroughs happen? I have heard some coaches say that it can happen…
Read more about When Can Youth and Cadet Fencers Make a Breakthrough?Most of the time when someone gets top 8 at a NAC, they get an A! This is cool; however, how often are people upgrading their ratings rather than just renewing? I analyzed the number of fencers from each rating who got into the top…
Read more about How Often Can Low Rated Fencers Advance to the Later Rounds?For my first post, I want to look at the win probability between certain ratings. Ratings are a bit strange in fencing because everybody cares about earning a higher rating, but at the same time people also say that they don’t matter. It’s also commonly…
Read more about Unveiling Fencing’s Winning Odds by Rating
